Can the Tories change leader?

Even by the standards of recent months and years, the speed with which U-turns, plots and rumours are streaming out of Westminster is unprecedented.

Tonight, The Times suggest that schemes are in motion to replace Liz Truss with a "joint ticket" of Rishi Sunak and Penny Morduant without going to the wider Conservative Party for a vote.

Such a move would be very contentious, not least because – as far as I'm aware – there's no existing mechanism with which to make such a move. The rules would have to be rewritten to allow an "anointing" of a new Prime Minister by the parliamentary party, without consultation with the members.

That's not to say such a move is impossible. The 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs could, in theory, simply change the rules. It would be a nuclear option, and sets a dangerous precedent for changing them on a whim in the future. Yet we are living in genuinely uncharted territory, and the damage being inflicted on the country is so severe that any move could hardly be viewed as a whim.

As Henry Zeffman reported this morning, the mood is "sulphurous" in the House of Commons. It's not unusual, even in times of relative stability and normality, for backbench MPs and Cabinet members to differ slightly in their opinions on policy or the future. What we're seeing at the moment is wildly opposed statements, predictions and opinions coming from all areas of the Conservative Party every few hours. The markets lurch from surges to crashes and back again as rumours of U-turns ripple through the inboxes of traders and journalists.

You have Kwasi Kwarteng saying that the position "has not changed" and that he's "not going anywhere". You've got Christopher Chope on Newsnight peddling the imaginary "anti-growth coalition" line, and categorically stating that Truss will not U-turn.

Chope is, it's fair to say, rather on the right hand side of the Conservative Party. A Brexit supporting and Leave Means Leave flagbearer, he has an appalling voting record, and was described by a minister as having been "for many a year a Jurassic embarrassment." He added that "the man should retire."

Yet, as an MP who would hardly have been heard from five years ago (and he's been a Tory MP since 1997!), the very fact that he and his ilk find themselves on Newsnight pressuring the Prime Minister into not undoing the damage terrorising the country at the moment is a sign of just how prominent these fundamental elements of the Conservative Party have become. Their pressure is now so great that they have gone from being the irritating fringe under David Cameron to genuine kingmakers.

Whilst their influence may have dramatically increased, at the same time, other Conservative MPs are apopletic. One told the BBC "It's checkmate, we're screwed. There is no question in my mind, they'll have to junk loads of this stuff and U-turn."

Similar tones are being tested with client journalists like Harry Cole, who tweeted an article from The Sun claiming that Liz Truss is considering raising corporation tax next year in a "spectacular mini-Budget U-turn". When it comes from someone like Harry Cole, you do suspect that this is the groundwork being laid.

Even that may come too late, after apparently disastrous attempts to placate the party at the 1922 Committee. One Tory MP, leaving the meeting, remarked that "there's nothing between the ears. She didn't answer a bloody question and kept asking us what we should do. It's clear panic has set in."

These are huge signs of a government that has ground to an effective halt – in just one month – and become fully dysfunctional. There thus seems to be an acceptance in the media – and in large swathes of the Conservative Party – that this can't go on. Not because of some point of political principle, but because it is increasingly clear that the damage caused by letting these policies and these people continue in office would simply be too great. One poll tonight put the Conservative Party at 19%. The Labour Party? 53%.

This a colossal gap. At the risk of repeating myself, it is truly unprecedented. The Conservative Party would be left with 4 (FOUR) seats, with these results. It would be a massacre.

The Conservative Party knows that calling a General Election – which is really what needs to happen, as quickly as possible – would render almost all of them unemployed. As a result, backed into a corner and desperate, they might find a way to change the rules and anoint the Sunak/Morduant "joint ticket" to avoid one.

I suspect that there is a sizeable portion of the Conservative Party who are dismayed at what's going on in front of them, and who know that changing the leader now is simply delaying the inevitable at the next General Election. Perhaps better to take the hit now, and use the time in opposition (or perhaps even as the third biggest party after the SNP) to rebuild from the ground up.

Unfortunately, I don't think that portion of the party is quite sizeable enough to trigger a General Election. Yet. The membership would likely be furious that Truss, their clear pick, is being replaced without them having a vote. Sunak might seem like a shining light of economic rationality now, but he too is tarnished by his place in Boris Johnson's administration. He would bring financial respectability back to the party, but would it be enough?

The further a party gets from a democratic mandate at a General Election, the more uncomfortable the electorate is going to feel if Sunak/Morduant were installed and then ran on a ticket in two years time.

They would also face a now literally impossible task: uniting the Conservative MPs around them. Below is a flavour of the unhinged mentalists currently dwelling within their ranks:

There's no easy way out, now. Truss cannot survive this – that much is clear.

Can the country afford another leadership race as before? It cannot. I think the the Conservatives know that, too.

Could there be an anointing of Rishi and Morduant? Well, as Jon Sopel points out, that's not a clean and clear solution. They may still try (and succeed) in doing that, but it doesn't solve many of the Tories deeply ingrained problems. It would, admittedly, be better for the country by virtue of how awful Truss and Kwarteng are.

Or does this all continue to unravel until it all collapses and the infighting becomes so bad that it becomes impossible for the Government to hold? Again, it's hard to see a mechanism through which that happens unless this drags on and continues to get worse, but it's starting to look like the most likely outcome.