The Fall of Social Media

Their arrival heralded the dawn of a new age of communication. Our connection to others, the very essence of human existence, was digitised, made instantaneous and always-on. They have – in the space of a decade – re-wired our brains, allowed us to project unrealistic and idealistic versions of our lives to our friends and families, and created unprecedented levels of scrutiny and pressure on adolescents growing up in the social media age.

That's not to say they haven't had their positives. Our ability to stay in touch with distant friends and relatives, share news and information, showcase our music and art... the benefits are plainly apparent.

The golden age of social media is coming to an end, if it hasn't done so already. The most influential platforms (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, Reddit) have all been around for at least nine years. The only newcomer to the party - TikTok - appeared in 2018. The majority of innovation took place in the mid to late 2000s, driven by the advances in smartphone technology. All the hitters emerged: Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, Reddit, Google Plus... all formed between 2004 and 2011. Since then? Very little of note. TikTok and arguably Vine – itself a kind of prototype TikTok – the exceptions to the rule.

Yet the power of these networks is exponentially larger than ten, even five years ago. They have grown in usage, revenue and reach enormously. All good, right?

That growth has come at a cost. The monetary value of these platforms is derived from one source: you, the user. Your data makes the platforms valuable. It can be leveraged through advertising, used for political analysis, even harnessed to swing elections and referenda.

Many people have written about the horrific state of Facebook today. The user interface is a jumbled mess of features and tools we rarely use. Facebook is falling into the same traps that MySpace did a decade before, prioritising development of a so-called suite of entertainment tools over improving the art of social networking. Your feed is full of advertisements, irrelevant content, and racist elderly relatives reposting articles about immigration from highly suspect websites. It has become an echo chamber, and usage amongst teenagers and young adults is declining steadily.

Twitter too is suffering. Although staying much closer to its original founding principles, the politicisation of the platform and the dissemination of fake news (and fake profiles) are putting strain on the platform's ability to draw in and retain users. Where 350 million users had been tweeting daily in 2013, this fell to 250 million in 2019.

Unlike Facebook, Twitter hasn't been so heavily affected by a cluttered, badly designed interface or incessent interruption from advertisements. It has, however, developed into a toxic echo chamber, full of fake accounts sharing fake stories to prompt outrage, fear or political fury. Twitter is suspending more bot accounts than ever before – a symptom of a major problem on the platform.

Instagram is probably the healthiest of the current platforms, if measured objectively. It's still growing healthily – although that growth is slowing – and enjoying enormous success amongst millenials. It's user interface is tried, tested, and any changes have been deployed carefully and iterartively.

It has its own set of problems, though. It has been linked with an increase in mental health problems and is arguably the biggest contributor to the promotion of unrealistic, fake lifestyles. #FOMO, anyone? Facebook has so far resisted the temptation to trash the platform for capitalist gain. Product advertisements are present, but nicely integrated on the whole, and the inability to post hyperlinks in post descriptions has kept the platform tidy. That said, one has to wonder how long this will last in the quest for endless revenue growth.

As for Snapchat, on paper it's boasting good progress: 20% year-on-year user growth in Q1 2020, and recently boosting its revenue by 44%. However, there are warning signs. A history of failed user interface changes suggests a platform that it unclear how best to innovate itself, and – most notably – lacklustre growth in its users in North America (the platform's most lucrative market). Quite how long the platform can continue to engage once it's usage is maximised worldwide is the biggest question facing the platform longer-term.

So, what does all this mean?

The growth of TikTok shows that social media platforms can still arrive on the scene. With 1.5 billion downloads and YOY growth of nearly 100% in 2019, it is the new kid on the block. Insanely popular with Generation-Z, it's proved something of a challenge for many brands to culturally shift towards, grasp and monetise.  

Social media isn't going anywhere fast. The most likely future at this moment in time is likely a slow decline, as privacy concerns and platform fatigue creep in. However, they have so successfully permeated our lives and social lexicon that we have grown dependent upon them as a society. We rely on them to communicate with our friends, our family; to express ourselves; to sell our used products; to rant and rave; to share our lives.

However, they are not permanent and will be replaced. I feel we may be on the cusp of the next generation of platforms to arrive, learning from the failings of the past and launching without the baggage tied around the ankles of the Zuckerberg/Dorsey era. Platforms founded on privacy, coupled with the most popular features (and casting off the fat around the edges) and designed to take advantage of the latest technologies.

The current swathe of social platforms are like the dominant nations in Europe in 1900. The British Empire, Imperial Germany, the Ottoman Empire. Once the dominant empires of the world, their size exceeded their ability to adapt to the changing world they helped create. These empires fell to be replaced by smaller, more adaptable states. Over the twentieth century, they cut off the long-held institutions of the past – the monarchies and aristocracies that their populations resented – and replaced them.

The modern world precipitates change at a much faster rate. In terms of digital history, Facebook is the Roman Empire beginning to fall into decline, ready to be picked apart by its rivals and be replaced with new states.  What the next ten years will bring – not just for social networks themselves, but for how we operate as a culture and society – is notoriously difficult to predict, but I would be astonished if, on 1st January 2030, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat and even TikTok maintain their strangehold on the top digital platforms.

We have an opportunity ahead of us to redefine how we want to interact with others digitally. For all their benefits, social platforms have robbed many of us of the ability (or even desire) to enjoy physical social interaction with others. Our desire to trust others when we can log on and check where they are, or when they were last online, has been degraded. For many, the thrill of meeting new people in a bar or a club has been reduced to a simple, meaningless swipe right. We could change all that, and allow social media to complement our lives rather than replace them. Or, we could double down and further replace our traditional lives with more convenient alternatives. Zoom first dates?

Perhaps that choice will be taken out of our hands. Our ability to concentrate or retain information has been damaged in the last ten years – the long term effects of which are unclear. Will damage become clear that necessitates a push-back in how we value content? Or will an election will be so sabotaged by unchallenged fake news and social media manipulation that legal changes will be brought in that dismantle the networks?* Will the shift to the right in US/UK politics end with a surge in censorship that decimates usage? Who knows.

For now, we'll keep on tweeting and "doing it for the 'gram", but the winds of change are picking up.

• For more on this, check out the fantastic Don't Be Evil: The Case Against Big Tech by Rana Faroohar - amazon.co.uk.